Top Five Pressures in 2012 Cotton Industry
On March 15, the reporter learned from the Tianjin Cotton Association that in the face of the ever-changing cotton market, the Cotton Association reminded cotton and circulation companies to keep abreast of market changes and do a good job of linking the cotton market.
Experts stated that since the beginning of this year, the situation of domestic and foreign cotton consumption has not improved, the sales of textile enterprises have been sluggish, the import of cotton imports has increased significantly, the spread at home and abroad has been widening, and the domestic cotton market has been under greater pressure. The state continues to store and store policies, supporting the stable operation of cotton prices. . Looking at the global economic situation in 2012, the development of the cotton industry has a lot of uncertainties such as the export situation of textiles and garments and the decline in the global intention of planting cotton.
At the Tianjin Cotton Association’s 2012 annual cotton situation analysis and diversified business seminars, it was considered that the pressure on the development trend of China's cotton industry in 2012 is relatively large, mainly in five aspects:
First, the cotton planting area showed a decreasing trend. Affected by the sharp fall in cotton prices, the increase in cotton planting costs, and the reduction in income, cotton farmers' enthusiasm for planting cotton has been frustrated. According to a survey conducted by the China Cotton Association, the national cotton planting intention in 2012 is expected to drop by 10.5%. Municipal Bureau of Agriculture statistics, 2012 city cotton planting intention is expected 800,000 acres, compared with the previous year, cotton planting area decreased by 11%. According to the association’s understanding, despite the increase in storage and storage prices for the new year by RMB 600/t, the issue of costly, time-consuming and costly planting of cotton is still prominent. Farmers believe that cotton is not as good as corn, and the cotton planting area is still decreasing.
The second is the slight increase in cotton yarn production. Macro-control will accelerate the development of the textile industry in the direction of high speed, high output, automation and intelligence, and improve product quality and added value. As cotton prices have returned to normal levels, cotton spinning production will continue to increase slightly, and annual cotton consumption will reach 11 million tons.
Third, the increase in cotton imports showed a downward trend. In 2011, imports of cotton were 3.365 million tons, an increase of 511,000 tons, an increase of 18.5%. Given last year's cotton harvest, the country established a reserve, although the market consumption is weak, but the inventory of commodity cotton has fallen. The spread at home and abroad has been widening. It is expected that the increase in imports of cotton this year will fall back, with an import volume of 3.5 million tons.
Fourth, the cotton price showed a slight fluctuation trend. As the market consumption in the new year lacks the driving force for price increase, the temporary purchase and sale price will become a “stabilizer†for domestic and foreign prices, supporting the relatively stable cotton price at a reasonable level of around 22,000 yuan/ton. The imported inflation caused by rising oil prices, plus the third quantitative easing that the United States may introduce, will push up prices and fluctuate the market.
Fifth, the increase in textile exports showed a downward trend. In 2011, exports of textiles and clothing were US$247.96 billion, an increase of 20.1% over the same period of last year. The price deducted from the price factor only increased by 1.14% and the export volume was negative. It is expected that the growth rate of textile and apparel exports will fall back to 15% in 2012.